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(06/12/23)
 IATA has reported that global air cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), increased by 3.8%
in October 2023 when compared to the same month last year.

For international operations, demand lagged slightly at
3.5%, while capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), was up 13.1% compared to October 2022
(11.1% for international operations). This was largely related to
the growth in belly capacity. International belly capacity, for
example, rose 30.5% year-on-year on the strength of passenger markets.

Several factors in the operating environment
should be noted:

– Economic activities slowed in October.
With the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing output and
export orders for major economies (excluding the US) remaining
below the critical 50 mark, there is a clear marker for economic
challenges ahead.

– Inflation in major advanced economies
continued to ease from its peak in terms of Consumer Price Index
(CPI), reaching between 3% and 4% for the US and for the EU
respectively, in October. China’s CPI, however, indicated
deflation for the second time this year, raising concerns of an
economic slowdown.

ULD at Noi Bai Airport in Hanoi, Vietnam. Picture by Steven Howard of TravelNewsAsia.com

– Global trade reversed its downward
trajectory and stabilized in September. Although below its 2022
peak, global cross-border trade is more than 5% above pre-pandemic
levels.

– After a continuous 17-month decline, cargo yields
ticked-up in September and continued into October with a 2.6%
month-on-month gain, remaining well-above pre-pandemic levels.

“Demand for air cargo was up 3.8% in October. That
marks three consecutive months of year-on-year growth, placing air
cargo on course to end 2023 on a much stronger footing than it
began the year,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
“Recovering demand, slightly stronger yields and the uptick in
trade are all good news. But with demand still 2.4% below
pre-pandemic levels, and much uncertainty remaining over the
trajectory of the global economy, optimism must be balanced with
caution. Nonetheless, a continued strong peak year-end season will
certainly help the sector to manage through whatever turns the
global economy might take in 2024.”

Asia-Pacific airlines saw
their air cargo volumes increase by 7.6% in October 2023 compared
to the same month in 2022. This performance was close to par with
the previous month (+7.7%). Carriers in the region benefited from
ongoing growth in international CTK’s on three major trade lanes:
Africa-Asia (+16.7%, the greatest annual growth since May), Middle
East-Asia (+10.3%) and Europe-Asia (+8.5%). Available capacity for
the region’s airlines increased by 30% compared to October 2022
as more belly capacity came online from the
passenger side of the
business – a year ago, for example, the key Asian markets of Japan and China
were still largely under severe COVID19 travel restrictions.

North American carriers had the weakest performance in October
with a 1.8% decrease (y-o-y) in cargo volumes, a slight
improvement in performance compared to September (-2.2%). Although
the North America-Asia trade lane recorded an increase in
international CTK’s, from -1.8% in September to -0.9% in October,
and the North America-Europe market saw a slight improvement in
international CTK’s, from -2.7% in September to -2.1% in October,
carriers in the region did not benefit significantly. Capacity
increased by 2.4% compared to October 2022.

European
carriers saw their air cargo volumes increase by 1% in October
compared to the same month in 2022, a stronger
performance than in September (-1.5%). Carriers in the region
benefitted from the first growth in international CTK’s in the
within Europe market since January 2022, -4.2% in September vs
+3.4% in October. Gains made from the expansion in the Middle
East-Europe trade lane (+17.1% in October) also benefited carriers
in the region. Capacity increased 7% in October 2023 compared to
2022.

Middle Eastern carriers had the strongest performance
in October 2023, with a 10.9% year-on-year increase in cargo
volumes. This was a significant improvement from the previous
month’s performance (+2.5%). Carriers in the region benefited from
growth in the Middle East–Asia (+10.3%) and Middle East–Europe
markets (+17.1%). Capacity increased 15% compared to October 2022.

Latin American carriers experienced a 4% increase in
cargo volumes compared to October 2022, a notable increase
compared to the previous month’s gain (+2.3%). Capacity in October
was up 8.3% compared to the same month in 2022.

African
airlines saw their air cargo volumes increase by 2.9% in October
2023, much improved compared to September’s performance (-0.1%).
Carriers in the region benefitted from the strongest annual growth
since May (+16.7%). Capacity was 9.8% above October 2022 levels.

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