London: Countries making up more than 60% of the world’s economic output and more than half of population conducts elections this year.
taiwanese voters On Saturday, Lai Ching-te, the presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, rejected Chinese pressure to bring him to power. And on Monday, US Republican presidential candidates faced the party’s first nominating contest in Iowa.
Here’s a look at the major elections the markets are focused on, in roughly chronological order.
Europe
Dates: 10 March (Portugal), 9 June (Belgium), 6–9 June (European Parliament), autumn/winter (Croatia), November (Romania), to be confirmed (Austria)
Back story: The shock victory of Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party in the Netherlands in November energized the Eurosceptic far right. Its name is at the forefront of Austrian elections. The votes of Portugal’s Chega party may double, although leftist parties are ahead there.
Crucially, far-right parties are eyeing gains in the EU legislature, promising to toughen migration policy and soften green reforms.
Market Risk: Europe’s top 2023 performer, Italian stocks and bonds, could suffer if gains by Eurosceptic parties are seen as weakening commitment to European integration.
A joint debt-raising by the EU to fund the post-pandemic recovery has helped reduce the perceived risk of Italian debt.
The EU Parliament is heavily involved in law-making and the election of the next head of the bloc’s executive, see readout on further support for Ukraine and climate policy.
Russia:
Date: 17 March
Back story: Vladimir Putin, who was handed over the presidency by Boris Yeltsin in late 1999, is certain to remain in power for the next six years. Polling shows that Putin enjoys an approval rating of over 80% in Russia. Opposition politicians say the elections are a carefully stage-managed imitation of democracy.
Key Market Risks: In the campaign, Putin may further reveal his thinking regarding the war in Ukraine. Putin has warned the West that any attempt to interfere in the elections would be considered an act of aggression.
Western governments such as the United States and Japan are considering freezing frozen Russian assets such as cash and government bonds held by their central banks abroad. Russia has said that if this happens it will retaliate.
Russia’s economy has been boosted by a huge increase in defense spending over the war, although inflation fueled by the sharp ruble depreciation has forced interest rates higher.
turkey
Date: 31 March (local elections)
Back story: A return to conservative economics following President Tayyip Erdogan’s re-election in May has begun to attract international investors back. JPMorgan believes 2024 could be a record year for international bond issuance.
Key Market Risks: With a weak lira and inflation above 60%, Erdogan is worried about moving back to a conservative pivot.
Neither widely respected Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek nor Wall-Street Central Bank Governor Hafez Ge Erkan are expected to budge easily. Erdogan has a history of taking a dime and has fired four central bank chiefs in as many years.
India
Date: April-May, TBC
Back story: Narendra Modi is expected to win a third term as Prime Minister by leading the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the national elections. Investors withdrawing cash from China have turned to India.
Key Market Risks: Continuously increasing inflation can harm BJP. If he does not get full majority, Modi will need to form a coalition.
Major commodity exporter India has created a stir in the market by banning exports of rice, wheat and sugar. A return to fiscal populism risks widening India’s fiscal deficit, which would require financing from potentially record-high domestic market borrowings.
Mexico
Date: June 2
Back story: The presidential election will include a complete reshuffle of Congress and elections in nine states. Surveys show the incumbent National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party and its candidate, ex-Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, with a wide two-point lead.
The populist Morena is projected to have a more balanced Congress that blocks constitutional changes. But given the success of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s spending campaign, Sheinbaum is expected to do the same.
Key Market Risks: Heavy spending could cause Mexico’s peso to decline and government bonds to suffer losses.
South Africa
Date: May-August 2024 (TBC)
Back story: The ruling African National Congress is in danger of losing its parliamentary majority in elections for the first time since Nelson Mandela came to power in 1994.
Economic turmoil, power cuts, austerity and allegations of corruption have alienated voters. The ANC may need to partner with the Democratic Alliance or Marxist Economic Freedom.
Key Market Risks: Before the elections, the government may reduce austerity, increase debt. If the ANC forms a coalition with a leftist party, social spending could increase. A weak currency and concerns about public finances could slow rate cuts.
United States of america
Date: 5 November
Back story: Donald Trump is predicted to win the Republican nomination in the upcoming primaries, setting the stage for a tight battle with Democrat incumbent Joe Biden – a rematch of the 2020 election Trump supporters attempt to block Joe Biden’s certification. Ended with mob attacking Congress. Victory.
Trump faces criminal charges and numerous other legal matters in four jurisdictions while he still falsely claims the 2020 election was stolen. Biden describes his opponent as a threat to democracy who will take revenge on his many enemies if returned to power.
Market Risk: The market ignored the post-election violence four years ago. But given the sharp rhetoric from both sides this time, a Trump-Biden rematch may have investors worried about the risk of social unrest.
A bitter election could weigh on consumer sentiment as the world’s largest economy seeks to avert a recession from the delayed effects of aggressive interest rate hikes.
The dollar may fluctuate due to election prospects.
Stocks could be hurt by caution over US-China tensions if parties exploit trade barriers’ popularity Analysts say higher tariffs would fuel inflation, strengthening the dollar and the yuan, euro. And will hurt the Mexican peso.
Pledges to cut spending by either party could trigger a complex but popular US bond trade, leading to increased government borrowing. And keep an eye on oil: Trump favors more US drilling, which Biden has reined in.
Britain
Date: Due by January 2025, Expected by end of 2024
Back story: The opposition Labor Party, led by centre-left candidate Keir Starmer, is leading the ruling Conservatives in the polls.
Market Risk: Ahead of the election, a stagnant economy and tight fiscal budget mean government bonds could become volatile with any surprise spending promises. The March 6 budget may include new tax cuts.
Labor plans to ease planning rules and make targeted changes to tax rules, raising risks for housebuilders that could hurt energy companies. He also wants closer ties with the EU after Brexit, which could boost sterling.
Venezuela
Date: 2024 TBC
Back story: Incumbent Nicolas Maduro has a lead in the presidential election, with main opposition candidate María Corina Machado banned from running due to alleged crimes such as supporting US sanctions on Maduro’s government and supporting former opposition leader Juan Guaido.
Market Risk: In October, the US lifted the oil embargo for six months and debt restrictions indefinitely, allowing US investors to trade in some bonds in return for negotiations to ensure fair and free elections.
Reimposed sanctions could roil Venezuelan stocks and bonds. Bond prices are in deep trouble, with bonds having more than doubled since the restrictions were lifted. Potential debt restructuring is also in focus.