New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may win 118 seats, the Congress-led opposition bloc I.N.D.I.A. may win 110 and other regional parties like Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), YSRCP may win 54 out of a total of 282 parliamentary seats, if Lok Sabha elections are held now in 18 states. These states include West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Assam and seven other north-eastern states including Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Manipur, Meghalaya, Sikkim, Nagaland and Mizoram.
This is the first part of the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll conducted between September 20 and October 3 with a sample size of 54,250 voters, which include 28,309 males and 25,941 females. The first part of the opinion poll was telecast on India TV channel today, while the second and third parts of the opinion poll will be telecast on Friday and Saturday.
The opinion poll projections show Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress may win 30 seats in West Bengal, MK Stalin-led DMK may win 21 seats in Tamil Nadu, Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal may win 13 seats in Odisha, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSRCP may win 15 seats in Andhra Pradesh, and K Chandrashekhar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi may get only 8 out of a total of 17 seats in Telangana.
The most surprising projections are from Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Assam and Chhattisgarh, where Modi-led BJP may make impressive gains. BJP may win 23 out of 25 seats in Rajasthan, 25 out of 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, seven out of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh while NDA may win 12 out of 14 seats in Assam. In LDF-ruled Kerala, Congress-led UDF is projected to win 16 out of a total of 20 seats, with the remaining four seats going to LDF.
Following are the state-wise party break-up projections for 282 Lok Sabha seats:
Telangana (Total 17 seats): BRS 8, BJP 6, Congress 2, AIMIM 1. (Vote Share: BRS 40%, BJP 28%, Congress 23%, AIMIM 3%, Others 6%).
Andhra Pradesh (Total 25 seats): YSRCP 15, Telugu Desam Party (TDP): 10. (Vote Share: YSRCP 46%, TDP 42%, BJP 2%, Congress 2%, Others 8%).
Kerala (Total 20 seats): UDF 16, LDF 4, NDA 0. (Vote Share: UDF 47%, LDF 39%, NDA 13%, Others 1%)
Assam (Total 14 seats): NDA 12, Congress 1, Others 1. (Vote Share: BJP 42%, Congress 29%, Others 29%).
Seven other Northeastern states (Total 11 seats): NDA 8, I.N.D.I.A. 3.
Karnataka (Total 28 seats): BJP 16, Congress 10, Janata Dal (S) 2. (Vote Share: BJP 44%, Congress 40%. JDS 11%, Others 5%).
Tamil Nadu (Total 39 seats): DMK 21, AIADMK 6, Congress 7, PMK 1, Others 4, BJP 0. (Vote Share: DMK 31%, AIADMK 25%, Congress 11%, BJP 7%, PMK 6%, Others 20%).
Chhattisgarh (Total 11 seats): BJP 7, Congress 4. (Vote Share: BJP 46%, Congress 43%, Others 11%).
Madhya Pradesh (Total 29 seats): BJP 25, Congress 4. (Vote Share: BJP 48%, Congress 41%, Others 11%).
Rajasthan (Total 25 seats): BJP 23, Congress 2. (Vote Share: BJP 49%, Congress 41%, Others 10%).
West Bengal (Total 42 seats): Trinamool Congress 30, Congress 2, BJP 10, Left Front 0. (Vote Share: Trinamool 48%, BJP 36%, Congress 7%, Left Front 6%, Others 3%).
Odisha (Total 21 seats): Biju Janata Dal 13, BJP 8. (Vote Share: Biju Janata Dal 45%, BJP 41%, Congress 11%, Others 3%).
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