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(04/10/23)
 IATA’s global air cargo market data for August
2023 shows that year-on-year demand grew for the first time in 19
months.

Measured in cargo tonne-kilometers
(CTK), global air cargo demand increased by 1.5% compared to August 2022 levels
and by 1.2% for
international operations.

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers
(ACTK), was up 12.2% compared to August 2022 and 11.8% for
international operations, largely thanks to belly
capacity rising 30% year-on-year as airlines ramped-up
operations to meet peak-northern summer travel season demand.

IATA states that several factors in the operating environment
should be noted:

– In August, both the manufacturing output
Purchasing Managers Index or PMI (49.4) and new export orders PMI
(47) saw a slight improvement to the previous month. They
remained, however, below the critical threshold represented by the
50 mark, indicating a continuing, if slower, annual decline in
global manufacturing production and exports.

UPS Boeing 747F preparing to land at HKG in April 2012. Picture by Steven Howard of TravelNewsAsia.com

– Global cross-border trade contracted for the
fourth month in a row in July, decreasing 3.2% year-on-year, reflecting the cooling demand environment and general
macroeconomic conditions.

– Inflation saw a mixed picture in August, with an
increase in US consumer prices for the second month in a row.
Meanwhile in Europe and Japan, consumer and producer prices fell.
In China, which is fighting deflationary pressures, consumer
prices rose.

“Air cargo demand grew by 1.5% over the previous
August. This is the first year-on-year growth in 19 months, so it
is certainly welcome news. But it is off a low 2022 base and
market signals are mixed,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director
General. “Looking ahead, while many uncertainties remain, we can
take some optimism from PMI data moving towards positive
territory. This is particularly significant as we head into air
cargo’s traditional peak year-end season.”

Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes
increase by 4.9% in August 2023 compared to the same month in
2022. This was a significant improvement in performance compared
to July (+2.3%). Carriers in the region benefited from growth on
two major trade lanes: Europe-Asia (up from 3.1% in July to 8.8%
in August) and Middle East-Asia (up from 2.7% in July to 3.5% in
August). Additionally, the within-Asia trade lane also performed
better in August, with international CTKs contracting by 4.7%
compared to the 9.7% annual decline in July. Available capacity
for the region’s airlines increased by 28.5% compared to August
2022 as more belly capacity came online from the passenger side of
the business.

North American carriers saw their air cargo
volumes decrease by 1.2%. This was an improvement in performance
compared to July (-5.4%). Carriers in the region benefitted from a
slight improvement in growth on two major trade lanes: North
America – Europe (2.9% annual contraction in August,1.2 percentage
points better than in July) and Asia – North America (declined
4.2% in August compared to 4.4% decrease in July). Capacity
increased 2.7% compared to August 2022.

European carriers saw their air cargo volumes
decline by 0.2% in August compared to the same month in 2022. This
was, however, an improvement in performance versus July (-1.0%).
Volumes saw an increase due to the aforementioned Europe – Asia
performance and a small increase in the Middle East – Europe
markets by 0.4%. Capacity increased 3.6% in August 2023 compared
to 2022.

Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 1.4%
year-on-year increase in cargo volumes in August 2023, an
improvement from the previous month’s performance (-0.1%). The
demand on the Middle East–Asia market has been trending upwards in
the past three months, expanding year-on-year growth from 1.8%
in June to 3.5% in August. Capacity increased 15.7% compared to
August 2022.

Latin American carriers had the strongest
performance in August 2023, with a 6.2% increase in cargo volumes
compared to August 2022, a significant increase in
performance compared to the previous month (+0.5%). Capacity in
August was up 13.7% compared to the same month in 2022.

African airlines had the weakest performance in
August 2023, with a 4.7% decline in cargo volumes compared to
August 2022, a significant decrease in performance
compared to July (+2.3%). Notably, Africa-Asia routes declined by
1.1% in August following an 11.2% growth in July. Capacity was
3.8% above August 2022 levels.

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