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(15/01/24)
 Global air cargo data for November 2023 shows
the strongest year-on-year growth in roughly two years, the fourth
consecutive month of strengthening demand.

According to IATA, global and international demand for air cargo,
measured in cargo tonne-kilometres (CTK), increased by 8.3% and
8.1%, respectively, when
compared to November 2022.

Global and international capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometres (ACTK), was up 13.7%
and 11.6%, respectively, when compared to the same month in 2022.

Most of the capacity growth
continues to be attributable to the increase in belly capacity as
international passenger markets continue their post- COVID
recovery.

Compared to November 2019 (pre-COVID-19), demand
is down 2.5% while capacity is up 4.1%.

Some indicators to note include:

– Both the manufacturing output and new export order
Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) – two leading indicators of
global air cargo demand continued to hover just below the 50-mark
in November with small positive movements indicating a
deceleration of the economic slowdown.

– Global cross-border trade recorded growth for the
third consecutive month in October, reversing its previous
downward trend.

Cargo ULDs at HAN. Picture by Steven Howard of TravelNewsAsia.com

– Inflation in major advanced economies continued to
soften in November as measured by the corresponding Consumer Price
Index (CPI), centering around 3% year-on-year for the United
States, Japan, as well as the EU, in November. In the meantime,
China exhibited negative annual growth in its CPI for the second
time in a row.

– Air cargo yields, including surcharges, continued
their significant upward trend and increased 8.9% since October. Rising
yields are in line with improving air cargo load factors over
recent months. This could be tied in part to booming e-commerce
deliveries from China to western markets.

“November air cargo demand was up 8.3% on 2022 – the
strongest year-on-year growth in almost two years,” said Willie
Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “That is a doubling of October’s
3.8% increase and a fourth month of positive market development.
It is shaping up to be an encouraging year-end for air cargo
despite the significant economic concerns that were present
throughout 2023 and continue on the horizon.”

Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes
increase by 13.8% in November 2023 compared to the same month in
2022. This performance was significantly above the previous
month’s growth of 7.6%. Available capacity for the region’s
airlines increased by 29.6% compared to November 2022 as more
belly space came online with the removal of COVID19
restrictions.

North American carriers had the weakest demand
growth in November with a 1.8% increase y-o-y in cargo volumes.
This was, nonetheless, a significant improvement in performance
compared to October’s -1.8% contraction. Capacity increased by
4% compared to November 2022.

European carriers saw their air cargo volumes
increase by 6.7% in November compared to the same month in 2022.
This was a stronger performance than in October (1%). Capacity
increased 6.5% in November 2023 compared to 2022.

Middle Eastern carriers had the strongest
performance in November 2023, with a 13.5% year-on-year increase
in cargo volumes. This was similar to the significant improvement
noted in the previous month’s performance (+13%). Capacity
increased 15.4% compared to November 2022.

Latin American carriers experienced a 4.2%
increase in cargo volumes compared to November 2022, very similar
to the 4% year-on-year increase recorded for October. Capacity
in November was up 7.7% compared to the same month in 2022.

African airlines saw their air cargo volumes
increase by 3.9% in November 2023, slightly improved compared to
October’s 2.9% growth performance. Capacity was 14% above
November 2022 levels.

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